Context
A prominent South African private equity firm sought to invest in undersea fibre cable infrastructure across Sub-Saharan Africa, targeting the growing demand for broadband capacity driven by telecom liberalisation and increasing digital adoption. The opportunity was significant, but so were the risks — complex regulatory environments, currency volatility, fragmented markets, and declining wholesale pricing.
The challenge
The investor needed a comprehensive, rapid commercial assessment: was the market thesis sound? Would demand materialise at the right price points? What were the regulatory barriers, competitive dynamics, and realistic exit scenarios?
What we did
We delivered an accelerated 360° commercial due diligence in 8 weeks, coordinating a multi-disciplinary team across strategy, finance, and regulatory expertise.
We analysed existing and planned cable capacities, mapped end-user demand across ISPs, telecom operators, and large corporates, and identified critical demand inflection points. We benchmarked wholesale pricing models (IRUs, leased lines) against key regional competitors and assessed competitive positioning across multiple cable consortia.
On the regulatory side, we analysed telecom frameworks, foreign investment restrictions, and economic risks across multiple target markets, developing strategic mitigation plans for each. We built financial models incorporating demand forecasts, pricing trajectories, regulatory impacts, and sensitivity analyses to predict potential returns under multiple scenarios.
Results
- Delivered a clear, actionable investment thesis identifying mid-to-long-term profitable entry opportunities despite initial oversupply risks
- Provided a strategic roadmap for prioritised market entry, partnerships, and capacity deployment aligned with regional demand growth
- Enabled the investor to make a confident, evidence-based investment decision on a $500M opportunity within the target timeline
Related service areas: M&A